By Eric VanMarcke
This file offers the important instruments engineers and determination makers have to larger comprehend appropriate probability methods and the way these tactics can let them to improve hazard aid thoughts and enforce mitigation activities to lessen lifeline losses from destiny earthquakes. as the disruption of lifelines from usual dangers has an immediate impression at the world’s local economies and the overall healthiness of its voters, you will need to comprehend average dangers, how they could influence lifelines, and what might be performed to reduce the effect after they take place. those 3 components and the techniques used to behave upon them have an effect on judgements that contain applicable danger tactics. the subject of 'acceptable chance' offers a method of bringing built-in structures possibility reviews for catastrophe explicitly right into a decision-making context. subject matters comprise technical matters; threat standards concerns; and verbal exchange, management, and rules matters
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This record offers the very important instruments engineers and selection makers have to larger comprehend applicable chance strategies and the way these tactics can permit them to advance threat aid recommendations and enforce mitigation activities to minimize lifeline losses from destiny earthquakes. as the disruption of lifelines from normal risks has a right away impression at the world’s neighborhood economies and the healthiness of its voters, it is very important comprehend usual risks, how they could impression lifelines, and what should be performed to lessen the impression after they take place.
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Additional resources for Acceptable Risk Processes: Lifelines and Natural Hazards
The officials of this area would like to reduce this damage value to a much smaller value. They would like to evaluate different options for protecting this area. These options may include (1) construction of a dam, (2) construction of levees, (3) construction of a drainage system, and (4) development of proper land use. While selecting the schemes, one can use two methods. The first method ignores frequency analysis and simply computes benefit–cost ratio. Of course, the EMV of each option in this case is simply the difference between benefit and cost.
These outcomes must be weighted with the corresponding probability values, and the sum of the weighted outcomes of each decision is then computed. The weighted sum determines the EMV of each decision. The decision with the greatest EMV may be the preferred decision but may not necessarily be the best decision. Let us now compute the EMV of each alternative decision. 3. 1. 1 = $1,000,000 For the third alternative, the profit will be $1,000,000 with a probability of 1 and the loss will be $4,000,000 with a probability of 0.
In other words, the value of money is different for different people as is true of the incremental value of money. Furthermore, the incremental value depends on the initial monetary state. For example, a million dollars is a lot of money or has a lot of value for a poor person but not so much for a billionaire. In other words, the value of money to a person is influenced by a multitude of factors. The relationship between the real money and its value is what defines the EUV; this relationship is nonlinear for both profit and loss and cannot be defined to be the same for all people.